Will James Talarico win in November the Senate seat in Texas

A friend asked the question since she supports Talarico.

I am reading about this matchup that, due to the slim margin in the polls, neither candidate is currently considered a clear favorite. I am also reading that the US Senate election in Texas in November 2026 is expected to be extremely tight, with polls showing that the race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton is turning into a neck-and-neck thriller.

Now regarding the chart, I will take Talarico as the 1st house and Paxton as the 7th house. The surprising thing I see is that both of them lack essential dignities, except for Talarico (Mars), who, despite being in his fall, is also in his own triplicity, which gives him an edge. On the other hand, Paxton has just entered his detriment, so something has changed for him; he will definitely lose something from this and won't have the power he used to.

Furthermore, he is ruled by Mars (meaning he seems to be under Talarico's control) and lacks his previous strength. This is something that the polls might also show down the road leading up to the election.
Additionally, this Venus (Paxton) is located in the 12th house, which indicates behind-the-scenes activity and Paxton's hidden maneuvers—especially in a sign associated with secret matters (Scorpio), mainly of a financial nature, and I will explain below how this can manifest and what it might mean.

Meanwhile, Mars is exactly on the cusp of the 9th house, high up, which perhaps indicates the appeal that Talarico himself will have. Also, through antiscia, Mars (Talarico) sits exactly on the Royal Star Aldebaran, which is of a Martian nature and grants honors, glory, and victory.

Now, looking at the Moon, it has translated the light of Mars (its last aspect) and as soon as it changes signs, it encounters Mercury ahead. This could indicate two things: first, that Talarico might gain a lot of ground because Mercury rules the 10th house, with the Sun and Moon intercepted inside the 10th in Venus's fall, so there is hope for Talarico.

The other thing this whole condition could mean is that Paxton might fund things under the table (12ος), play dirty (Scorpio), and bribe people (Mercury being his 2nd house ruler) along with his supporters, and ultimately snatch the victory.

When the Moon enters Libra, both the Moon and Mercury will be in the exaltation of Saturn. Saturn receives Mars and rejects Venus. Saturn represents the authorities, but it also represents the mass media, which will play a major role; it appears that moving forward and leading up to the election, they might show Talarico ahead. Since Saturn is in Aries, it rules the end of the matter and disposes of Mars. Furthermore, through antiscia, Venus will encounter an opposition to Pluto in the 3rd house in the future. To me, this indicates that as time goes on, the polls leading up to the election will show a rise for Talarico.